By Karl Plume
WASHINGTON, Feb 19 (Reuters) – U.S. farmers will plant more soybeans and less corn in 2026 than last year, although both harvests were expected to be the second-largest on record, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday.
The agency projected corn plantings at 94 million acres this year, down from an 89-year high of 98.8 million acres in 2025. Soybean seedings were expected to rise to 85 million acres, from 81.2 million acres last year.
Growers face difficult decisions this year due to a global supply glut, weak crop prices and rising costs for inputs such as seeds and fertilizer. U.S. farm income is projected to drop 0.7% despite near-record government payments, which are expected to account for nearly 29% of producers’ revenue.
Most Midwest farmers grow both crops, alternating what is planted on each field every year to preserve soil health. But some acres can break from the traditional rotation if growers see an opportunity to turn a better profit.
CORN ACREAGE FORECAST BELOW AVERAGE IN REUTERS POLL
The USDA’s corn acreage forecast, released at the start of its annual Ag Outlook Forum, was below the average estimate of 94.9 million acres in a Reuters analyst poll. Soybean seedings topped the average estimate of 84.9 million acres.
Low corn prices and ample supplies following a record U.S. crop in 2025 were expected to discourage growers from expanding plantings this year, although good demand from exporters and ethanol biofuel makers will likely limit a steeper decline, analysts said.
Soybean acres, meanwhile, were seen rising despite ongoing trade tensions with top importer China and stiff export competition from top supplier Brazil, where farmers have been harvesting a likely record crop.
Rising domestic demand for soybean oil from renewable fuel makers has kept a firm floor under prices.
Assuming normal weather, the USDA forecast the 2026 U.S. corn harvest at 15.755 billion bushels and a soybean harvest of 4.450 billion bushels.
After demand from exporters, livestock feeders and biofuel makers is met, the U.S. will have 1.837 billion bushels of corn left at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year on August 31, 2027, the USDA projected, down from a seven-year high of 2.127 billion bushels a year earlier.
Soybean stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season were projected to rise slightly to 355 million bushels from 350 million bushels at the end of 2025/26.
CORN EXPORTS SEEN FALLING, SOYBEANS RISING
The USDA forecast 2026/27 corn exports at 3.1 billion bushels, down 200 million bushels from 2025/26 due to rising competition from South American suppliers, while soybean exports were seen rising by 125 million bushels to a two-year high of 1.7 billion bushels.
Demand from U.S. soybean processors that crush beans into soymeal for livestock feed and soyoil for food and biofuel was projected at a record 2.655 billion bushels.
U.S. wheat stocks were forecast at 933 million bushels by the end of the 2026/27 marketing year, nearly unchanged from a year earlier as lower exports following bumper crops in rival suppliers Argentina and Australia offset a drop in U.S. production.
The USDA projected wheat exports for 2026/27 at 850 million bushels, down 50 million from the current marketing year.
(Reporting by Karl Plume in Washington. Editing by Mark Potter, Emily Schmall and Jan Harvey)
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