By Greta Rosen Fondahn
(Reuters) – The dollar steadied on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with investors on edge for hints of how much interest rates might fall this year, while they broadly expect the central bank to keep policy unchanged for now.
Expectations that trade policies under President Donald Trump could boost U.S. growth, but also push up inflation, had left markets betting on higher-for-longer interest rates in the lead-up to the inauguration, which in turn supported the dollar.
But as the tariff action investors had braced for has yet to materialise, currency markets have been volatile since Trump took office and the dollar has weakened.
Markets on Wednesday turned their attention to the outcome of the first Fed meeting of the year – less than a week after Trump said he wants the central bank to cut interest rates.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.1% at 108.
The index touched a one-month low on Monday at 106.96 amid a global selloff in technology stocks and rush to safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, but the index is still up more than 4% since the U.S. election in November.
Money markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady, as Fed officials weigh how the Trump administration’s economic agenda may affect sticky inflation and solid growth trends.
But investors will be attentive for any hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on whether a rate cut could happen soon if inflation eases closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target.
“Powell’s constraint is that it’s difficult to judge how the macro picture will evolve with uncertainty around tariffs and the fiscal policy,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies.
Markets fully price two 25 bps cuts from the Fed this year, but do not expect the first easing until June.
The euro traded 0.15% lower at $1.0416, while the pound fell 0.1% to $1.2428.
The yen strengthened, leaving the dollar down 0.2% on the day at 155.22, after giving up some of this week’s safe-haven gains on Tuesday.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will cooperate on issues including forex, Kato said on Wednesday.
FEB. 1 LOOMS
Although tariffs did not materialise on Trump’s first day in office, attention has turned to Saturday when the U.S. President is expected to issue 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and trade policy uncertainty lingers.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that Trump plans to make good on his promise to issue tariffs on the two countries on Feb. 1, but issued no details.
Trump also said on Monday he planned to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals and steel to try to encourage manufacture in the United States.
“Policy uncertainty remains extremely high, and … it is tough to sit in short USD positions for any length of time so long as these tariff threats continue to dangle over the market,” said Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone.
(Reporting by Greta Rosen Fondahn; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Barbara Lewis)
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