By Mei Mei Chu, Antoni Slodkowski and Michael Martina
BEIJING/WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) – China’s investigation into its top general is taking President Xi Jinping’s years-long corruption purge into his innermost circle, underlining that even close personal ties do not offer protection when it comes to loyalty to the party leadership.
China experts said Xi’s move against his long-term ally and Politburo member Gen. Zhang Youxia also concentrates even more power in the president’s hands, makes the already secretive command of China’s military more opaque, and suggests that a near-term attack on Taiwan is less likely.
“Zhang’s removal means that truly nobody in the leadership is safe now,” said Jonathan Czin of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, who called the investigation “astonishing”.
Czin, who spent years as a top China analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency and, in 2021-2023, served as the director for China at the United States National Security Council, added that the probe marked a “profound shift” in Chinese politics.
The change is remarkable as past purges targeted people who may have had some overlap with Xi but lacked strong personal ties. This time around, the purge has crossed into what Czin has described as the “asteroid belt” of Xi’s political solar system.
Both Xi and Zhang are princelings, children of former senior officers. The 75-year-old general was initially expected to retire in 2022, but Xi kept him on the Central Military Commission (CMC), the Chinese military’s top leadership body, for a third term, underscoring their closeness.
The defence ministry announced a probe on Saturday into Zhang – second-in-command under Xi as senior vice-chairman of the CMC – “for suspected serious violations of discipline and law”.
The military was one of the main targets of a broad corruption crackdown ordered by Xi after coming to power in 2012. The purges reached its elite Rocket Force, which oversees nuclear weapons as well as conventional missiles, in 2023. Two former defence ministers were also purged from the ruling Communist Party in recent years for corruption.
“I think corruption concerns are probably real, though those are typically more a pretext to remove someone in Chinese politics,” said Czin, citing how deeply entrenched graft was before Xi’s campaign.
Another senior member, Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the CMC’s Joint Staff Department, was also placed under investigation, effectively shrinking the seven-member body into two, with Xi at the top.
“Xi has eviscerated the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) top brass like no leader before him,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society.
ELIMINATING THREATS
In a front-page editorial on Sunday, the PLA Daily described the probe as a major achievement, adding that the two generals had “seriously undermined and violated” the Chairman Responsibility System.
Under the system, Xi, as the CMC chairman, is vested with the “supreme military decision-making.” It also serves as the “institutional arrangement for practising the party’s absolute leadership over the army,” according to China’s government.
“To invoke violating the Chairman Responsibility System suggests Zhang had too much power outside of Xi himself,” said Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
The PLA Daily article did not offer further details and did not provide any evidence of a power struggle. While some analysts say it suggests disloyalty, others are sceptical Zhang posed a threat to Xi’s power.
“For Xi to undertake such a dramatic move suggests two things: Xi has the full support of the Chinese Communist Party, and Xi is confident in his consolidation of power over the military,” Morris said.
Zhang has in the past overseen the PLA’s procurement department which has become the target of a broad corruption crackdown ordered by Xi, but he himself has until now been spared.
James Char, a scholar at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that by placing Zhang under the probe, “Xi has also responded to criticisms that his PLA anti-corruption campaign has been a selective process – that his fellow princeling gets a free pass.”
“Zhang had got off scot-free after his acolyte, Li Shangfu, got into trouble in the latter half of 2023,” added Char. Former defence minister Li was ousted for suspected corruption in military procurement.
DEPLETED LEADERSHIP
But leaving the army leadership depleted and without replacements raises questions about how the world’s largest military is run.
“It is honestly not clear how the chain of command should be functioning – especially since so many of the officers who would otherwise be eligible to replace the disposed members of the CMC have themselves been ousted,” Brookings’ Czin said.
Other analysts said they expect higher-level initiatives like expanding joint training to slow down until Xi can rebuild the commission.
“That could look like adding additional members, or it could involve building some sort of new apparatus around Xi as the central decision maker,” said Eric Hundman, director of research at BluePath Labs, a Washington-based security consultancy.
Asia Society’s Thomas said Xi wanted to renew the military leadership and may be waiting until the Communist Party Congress next year to “thoroughly vet suitable candidates for vacancies on the CMC.”
Until then, the military will continue to push for Xi’s ambitious modernization goals, analysts said.
While China has not fought a war in decades, it is taking an increasingly muscular line in regional maritime disputes, as well as over the self-ruled Taiwan, which is claimed by China. Beijing staged the largest war games to date around Taiwan late last year.
With U.S. President Donald Trump’s attention elsewhere, and Taiwan scheduled for an election in 2028, Xi has time to “clean house,” analysts said.
“Gutting the PLA high command suggests that Xi is not contemplating a major military escalation against Taiwan in the near term. But his crackdown is designed to elevate a cadre of more competent and loyal generals who will pose more of a threat in the future,” Thomas said.
“Xi is a man on a mission,” he added. “He will do whatever it takes to ensure the Party and its military are politically loyal and ideologically committed.”
(Additional reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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