By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) -A looming U.S. deadline for more severe global tariffs is among a barrage of upcoming events threatening to disrupt an increasingly calm U.S. stock market that has set a string of all-time highs.
President Donald Trump has extended a deadline to August 1 for when higher levies will take effect on an array of trading partners unless deals are struck. That could boost market volatility heading into next Friday.
Much more is on the calendar that could move markets. Investors will watch the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, the monthly U.S. employment report and earnings reports from megacap companies Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.
“There is going to be a lot to digest for markets into next week,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments.
“Expectations from the markets have gone up relative to several months ago,” Miskin said. “So it’s just going to be another big week for trying to meet loftier expectations.”
RECORD HIGHS, FALLING VOLATILITY
The benchmark S&P 500 kept tallying new all-time highs during the week. Equities have recovered from a plunge after Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement set off fears of a recession that have since ebbed.
The S&P 500 has surged 28% since its low for the year a week later, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped 38% in that time.
“We just got three years of return in three and a half months,” said Chris Galipeau, senior market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute. “The equity market needs to consolidate this move.”
Market volatility measures have eased considerably. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked to 60 in April, but has been below its long-term median of 17.6 for most of July and on Wednesday posted its lowest close in five months.
However, pockets of volatility have emerged in the past week. Eye-popping gains in highly shorted stocks such as Kohl’s and Opendoor Technologies heralded the possible return of a “meme stock” craze that could signal some over-exuberance in risk appetite, at least among retail investors.
Meanwhile, the record-setting rally has lifted valuations to historically expensive levels. The S&P 500 was trading at 22.6 times earnings estimates, well above its long-term average P/E ratio of 15.8, according to LSEG Datastream, which could make the market vulnerable to disappointments in the coming week.
Higher tariffs on the European Union and many other countries could take effect on August 1. Trump had paused many of the most severe of his reciprocal tariffs in April, following the bout of extreme market volatility.
“There is a particular belief and conviction that the market has that the administration just won’t be as aggressive as they’ve been threatening because of what was experienced in early April,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “The next hurdle in the trade (situation) is really to see what sticks.”
FED OFFICIALS AWAIT TARIFF IMPACT
The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as central bank officials want more data to determine if tariffs are worsening inflation before they ease rates further.
But tensions between the White House and the central bank over monetary policy have heightened, with Trump repeatedly denouncing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates. Two of the Fed Board’s Trump appointees have articulated reasons for supporting a rate cut this month.
A packed week of corporate results includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook parent Meta Platforms, four of the “Magnificent Seven,” whose stocks heavily influence benchmark indexes because of the companies’ massive market values.
With about 30% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, overall second-quarter earnings are on track for a 7.7% increase from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES. That would beat a 5.8% estimated rise on July 1.
The week ends with the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday. Employment in July is expected to have increased by 102,000 jobs, according to Reuters data as of Thursday, after rising by 147,000 jobs in June.
“We’ve had relatively strong economic data that almost shows a modest re-acceleration in the economy in June and I think markets are priced to reflect this re-acceleration,” Miskin said.
(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Alden Bentley and David Gregorio)
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