By Niket Nishant
(Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has maintained a cautious stance on the U.S. economy for several quarters now and said on Tuesday accurate forecasts are a challenge because key shifts are apparent only in hindsight.
While the longtime CEO expressed optimism about the health of the consumer, he reiterated concerns about tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.
The bank remains measured when making projections, Dimon said, citing past crises that caught many off guard.
“Our forecasting of the future is very complex. You probably heard me say that sometimes it’s a complete waste of time. Most people cannot really pick inflection points,” he said.
Earlier in the year, Dimon had cautioned about the risk of recession, the possibility of credit spreads widening and inflation rising.
His comments reflect a broader challenge facing policymakers and markets. While precise economic projections are often challenging because of backward-looking data that is frequently revised, unpredictable factors can throw even seasoned observers off course.
A December study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examined the Blue Chip Survey of Professional Forecasters, an average of projections from about 50 economists, from 1993 to 2024, and found that actual GDP growth came within the forecast range just 44% of the time.
Here is a timeline of Dimon’s public comments on the U.S. economy over the past few quarters:
Date Comments
April 2024 The U.S. economic boom is “unbelievable”, Dimon
said at an event. “Even if we go into
recession, the consumer’s still in good shape.”
July 2024 “While market valuations and credit spreads
seem to reflect a rather benign economic
outlook, we continue to be vigilant about
potential tail risks,” he said, citing
geopolitical risks, large fiscal deficits and
other factors.
October 2024 “While inflation is slowing and the U.S.
economy remains resilient, several critical
issues remain, including large fiscal deficits,
infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade
and remilitarization of the world,” Dimon said.
January 2025 “Businesses are more optimistic about the
economy, and they are encouraged by
expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and
improved collaboration between government and
business,” he said, while repeating his
warnings about government spending and
geopolitical risks. “Inflation may persist for
some time.”
April 2025 “We are likely to see inflationary outcomes …
Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a
recession remains in question, but it will slow
down growth,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter
to shareholders.
April 2025 He reiterated his warning of economic
turbulence, noting that while tax reform and
deregulation could offer a boost, tariffs,
trade tensions and persistent inflation may
pose significant headwinds. He also highlighted
that the bank’s economists estimate a 50%
chance of a U.S. recession this year.
July 2025 Dimon said the financial market was
underestimating the possibility of U.S.
interest rates climbing higher, a prospect he
described as a “cause for concern”. The
administration’s tariffs, migration policies
and budget deficit could lead to price
pressures, he said.
July 2025 “The U.S. economy remained resilient in the
quarter. The finalization of tax reform and
potential deregulation are positive for the
economic outlook, however, significant risks
persist,” Dimon said.
Source: Reuters stories, earnings statements
(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; editing by Megan Davies and Devika Syamnath)
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