BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina’s monthly inflation likely ticked up to 1.9% in June, according to the median forecast of a Reuters poll, after May’s rise marked the lowest monthly increase since 2020.
The month of May had marked the smallest monthly increase in five years for South America’s No. 2 economy, with consumer prices rising just 1.5%, data from the official INDEC statistics agency showed, as the government of President Javier Milei works to tame painful price hikes.
For June, estimates from 15 local and foreign analysts ranged from 1.4% to 2.0%.
Consulting firm C&T Economic Advisors said their survey showed a 2% rise in June, slightly above their May estimate of 1.8% and the official 1.5% figure, but still one of the lowest monthly rates since 2020.
May’s unusually low inflation was driven by factors that did not recur in June, they added.
“No disinflation process is linear, so it is natural to observe some months with slightly higher inflation than the previous one,” said Eugenio Mari, chief economist at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso(LyP).
This is especially relevant “when we consider that these are the first months after the exchange rate unification and several relative prices are still seeking equilibrium,” he added.
For July, early analyst estimates predict a lower inflation rate than that projected for June.
“The rate of depreciation of our currency has been very slow,” said Aldo Abram, economist and executive director at LyP, saying this contributed to his estimates that July inflation would be lower than in June, at around 1.7%, even though July typically experiences seasonal price increases.
INDEC is scheduled to publish data for June on Monday at 1900 GMT.
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi and Walter Bianchi; editing by Deepa Babington)
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