LONDON (Reuters) -A momentous first half of 2025 comes to an end with trade, Federal Reserve independence and geopolitics staying high on the market watch list for the second half.
And there’s plenty to chew over: U.S. jobs data, a European Central Bank conference and Chinese business activity numbers.
Here’s all you need to know about the week ahead in global markets from Marc Jones, Yoruk Bahceli and Anousha Sakoui in London, Rae Wee in Singapore and Lewis Krauskopf in New York.
1/ H2 OH!
The year crosses the halfway line and while U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to power in January was always going to ruffle markets, even the most grizzled of traders have been shocked by the rodeo ride.
Some describe it as a once-in-a-generation “great rotation”. The main evidence is that King Dollar is having its worst start to a year since the era of free-floating currencies began in the early 1970s, as U.S. debt worries grow.
The “Magnificent 7” stocks are flat for the year too, compared to a near 20% leap by Chinese “Big Tech”, gold’s 25% surge and a 60% boom in European defence stocks.
There won’t be much time for an H2 breather either. Trump wants to ram his “Big Beautiful” fiscal bill though by the Independence Day holiday, his temporary ceasefire in the global trade war is due to run out five days later.
2/JOBS JOLT
Latest U.S. jobs data will shed light on the health of the labour market at a time when investors are debating at what point the Fed will next cut rates.
June numbers, due on July 3 in the holiday-shortened week, are expected to show employment grew by 129,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. That would be modestly slower growth than May’s 139,000 increase.
While a possibly weaker labour market is one consideration for rate cuts, the Fed is also monitoring inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell just told Congress that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer.
Investors are also watching the progress of Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill in Congress, with his Republican party hoping to keep it on track for the president to sign into law before the July 4 holiday.
3/ ESCAPE TO THE MOUNTAINS
Central bankers meet for the ECB’s annual forum in the foothills of Portugal’s Sintra Mountains on Tuesday, with focus on what rates-setters from ECB chief Christine Lagarde to the Fed’s Powell say on never-ending geopolitical turbulence.
Whether it’s the economic impact of renewed Middle East tensions or the July 9 tariff deadline, there’s little clarity ahead, blurring rate cut expectations.
Investors will look for clues on ECB policy, and Powell is in the spotlight with Trump considering naming his successor early, fanning worries over Fed independence.
The ECB could also announce the results of its strategy review. For all the post-pandemic turmoil, policymakers are seen side-stepping calls for self-criticism, standing by the last decade’s aggressive stimulus.
And Tuesday’s data should show whether euro zone inflation returns to its 2% target in June after dipping below it in May.
4/ LIFT-OFF?
It’s already midway through the year, but China’s long-awaited economic recovery has barely taken off.
Monday’s official purchasing managers’ index figures are likely to paint the same bleak picture investors have faced for most of the year as Trump’s tariffs hit manufacturing activity.
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading follows the official release a day later, and the bar to surpass May’s dismal numbers is relatively low.
Chinese officials sound upbeat about the growth outlook, but huge uncertainties loom.
Domestic deflationary pressures continue to deepen and a fragile Sino-U.S. trade truce is hardly the endgame. Tensions between the world’s two largest economies remain, even if they are out of sight for now.
5/ DEAL, DONE
Given tariffs and heightened market volatility, the first half has not gone too badly for dealmakers. China and Japan, for instance, saw huge jumps in M&A, Dealogic data in the year to June 23 suggests. Hong Kong awaits a possible Shein IPO – which would give Asia equity issuance a further boost.
Global M&A remains off 2021 highs but is still up on the same period last year by nearly 25% at just over $2 trillion.
The activity was driven by fewer but bigger deals like Charter Communications’ $22 billion bid for rival Cox Communications. This trend is likely to persist, at least in the U.S., where M&A rose 8% to nearly $885 billion.
While a KPMG survey of U.S.-based corporate and private equity dealmakers found that nearly all said tariffs had impacted dealmaking plans, nearly three quarters expected M&A to exceed last year’s levels.
For about two-thirds, potential tax policy changes would increase their appetite for M&A, and the new U.S. administration’s approach to anti-trust would make deals easier.
(Compiled by Amanda Cooper and Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram; Editing by Joe Bavier)
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